Temporary Trade Barriers: When Will They End?


Under WTO law, temporary trade barriers such as antidumping duties must be removed after a period of four or five years. However, under rather vague legal conditions, they can be renewed. This institutional environment provides the structure to carefully study the determinants of the \textit{length} of protection. We present a theoretical political-economy model of the renewal process and find that the probability a temporary trade barrier will be renewed decreases in the level of trade agreement tariffs and is also likely to decrease in the level of the anti-dumping duties. An increase in an industry’s profitability is shown to increase the probability of renewal also increases. Lobbying effort also increases the probability for a fixed strength of the lobby, while the strength of the lobby itself has more nuanced effects on the renewal probability.

Kristy Buzard
Kristy Buzard
Associate Professor of Economics

My current research focuses on the formation and maintenance of international trade agreements, conflict resolution, and innovation. I am particularly interested in the impact of international institutions, government structure and domestic political pressure on the possibilities for cooperation.